IS THIS WHAT WE WANT FOR THE IMPENDING GENERATION?
Driving to work can often seem like a grueling task – sitting in traffic amidst thousands of other busy-bodies navigating their way through an increasingly dense metropolis. Human population has increased exponentially during the last 200 years. During the 20th century alone, human population in the world grew from 1.65 billion to 6 billion. A recent report by the United Nations Population Division, predicts that human population could peak at 11 billion by 2100. Is this the world we want for our future successors?
– Simon Ross, CEO of UK-based campaign group Population Matters.
POPULATION BRIEFING
The world population is currently estimated at around 7.349 billion, according to the medium fertility estimate by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. As you absorb this enormous figure, let’s take you back to about 8000 B.C. During this time, it is estimated that the human population was around 5 million – that’s roughly the population of Norway. During the 8,000-year period leading up to 1 A.D., the population grew to 200 million, about the population of Brazil today, with a growth rate of 0.05% annually.
At this stage, human interference in the world was significant, but nowhere near the impact that we make today. Humans took what they needed from the earth to survive, and life went on much the same for many centuries. We also need to factor in that disease was far more deadly than it is today, because of the lack of scientific knowledge, so mortality rates were much higher.
It was during the Industrial Revolution that a tremendous change occurred. It had taken all of human history to reach 1 billion by 1800. The second billion was achieved in only 130 years (1930), the third billion in fewer than 30 years (1959), the fourth billion in 15 years (1974), and the fifth billion in only 13 years (1987).
HOW DID THE POPULATION GET SO BIG?
You might be sitting scratching your head trying to understand how the world got to be so populous. According to James Tulloch (Allianz), despite the global birth rate declining to 2.5 children per woman, population growth will continue for decades, to 8.1 billion people by 2025, to 9.6 billion by 2050. Why? Because more infants are surviving, people are living longer, and we currently have the largest ever population (1.8 billion) of young people aged 10 to 24 years.
“Barring a cataclysm, population growth is inevitable,” says Tulloch.
Simon Ross, CEO of UK-based campaign group Population Matters, believes wholeheartedly that we face a crisis of overpopulation.
“As aquifers are drained of water for agriculture, and as glaciers shrink due to climate change, we will see agricultural productivity decline just as more people move to meat-based diets.”
He believes that expanding populations will force food prices beyond the reach of the poorest, leading to increased poverty, hunger and conflict.
It is argued (although somewhat controversial because of religious reasons) that failing to tackle high birth rates perpetuates suffering. A 2012 report by the UNFPA and the Guttmacher Institute suggests that if all of the women in the poorest countries in the world who wanted to avoid pregnancy had access to family planning advice and safe contraception, it would mean millions fewer unwanted pregnancies, infant deaths, and pregnancy-related deaths.
The report also points out that reduced population growth historically delivers a “demographic dividend” – fewer dependent children and elderly people, but large numbers of working-age people.
“The first countries that went through this were the East Asian Tiger Economies (Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan),” explains UN demographer Ralph Hakkert. “Economists estimate that a third of their economic growth can be attributed to this demographic bonus.”
WARNING: POPULATION BOOM
In a report published in Science, demographers from several universities and the United Nations Population Division concluded that instead of leveling off in the second half of the 21st century, as the UN predicted less than a decade ago, the world’s already massive population will continue to swell beyond 2100. The report estimates an 80 percent chance that the number of people in 2100 will be somewhere between 9.6 and 12.3 billion.
IMAGE: Nigeria in comparison to Africa.
It is predicted that India could become the world’s most populous country, with its numbers peaking around 2070 and declining to around 1.5 or 1.6 billion by 2100.
However, the real concern is the massive predicted increase of population in sub-Saharan Africa (south of the Sahara). According to the UN, the population of the continent could quadruple, from less than 1 billion to almost 4 billion. In 2100, Africa could be more densely populated than China.
“These are not predictions,” says John Wilmoth, head of the UN Population Division. “These are projections of what will happen if current trends continue. There is still an opportunity to intervene.”
Why is Africa’s population increasing so much? Let's simplify things a bit. A country’s total fertility (the number of children the average woman bears in her lifetime) is the key variable in the “demographic transition” that every developing country is expected to go through. At the outset of the transition, high death rates and low life expectancies are balanced by high birth rates, as women bear many children, knowing that some might not survive.
As a country develops to into a modern state with improved agriculture, sanitation, and medicine, the mortality rate will drop, especially in children. It usually takes at least a generation for couples to adjust to the new reality and have fewer children.
During that interval, the population booms – and the size of the boom depends on how long it takes for fertility to fall. This was the case in western countries, where both mortality and fertility fell gradually over a period of a century or more.
In the 1960’s, demographers were shocked to see how fast the transition was happening in Asia and Latin America. It took just three to four decades for fertility levels to plunge in China and Brazil, from more than 6 to less than 2 – the number of children it takes for a couple to replace themselves, and for a country as a whole to maintain a stable population.
For China, it wasn’t a choice to cut down on population. China’s one-child-policy was introduced in 1978 and enacted in September 1980, to alleviate social, economic and environmental problems in the country. Unfortunately, the country now suffers from an imbalanced ratio of males to females.
“It was a total surprise,” says Gilles Pison of INED, the French National Institute of Demographic Studies. The experience in Asia and Latin America, he says, led demographers to expect a similarly rapid transition in other regions. But one region hasn’t followed suit.
You guessed it! As mentioned, it has become clear during the past decade or two, that fertility rates are falling very slowly in countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Proof of this has been very gradual because vital statistics in Africa are poor.
Nigeria is the crucial country in the equation. Its population, already Africa’s largest at 174 million, could more than quintuple in 2100, to more than 900 million. Of the people born on our planet during this century, one in five will be Nigerian, according to the UN. You might have trouble facing the reality of that many people in that small quantity of land – it’s undeniably shocking (check out the image).
If you are feeling overwhelmed absorbing this morbid information, just remember that the future is open for us to create. The statistics provided in this article are just that – statistics – they are not set in stone. In order to establish a favorable future, we have to change the now. The important message to spread today is the need to react to the realities of population change. Women need access to family planning, and education is imperative. The report by the UN Population Division is a reminder of the importance of emphasizing these factors as we move forward.
Driving to work can often seem like a grueling task – sitting in traffic amidst thousands of other busy-bodies navigating their way through an increasingly dense metropolis. Human population has increased exponentially during the last 200 years. During the 20th century alone, human population in the world grew from 1.65 billion to 6 billion. A recent report by the United Nations Population Division, predicts that human population could peak at 11 billion by 2100. Is this the world we want for our future successors?
"With smaller populations, we can have increasing living standards per head but less consumption, more space, better lives, smaller impacts on the planet, and more room for wildlife."
– Simon Ross, CEO of UK-based campaign group Population Matters.
The world population is currently estimated at around 7.349 billion, according to the medium fertility estimate by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. As you absorb this enormous figure, let’s take you back to about 8000 B.C. During this time, it is estimated that the human population was around 5 million – that’s roughly the population of Norway. During the 8,000-year period leading up to 1 A.D., the population grew to 200 million, about the population of Brazil today, with a growth rate of 0.05% annually.
At this stage, human interference in the world was significant, but nowhere near the impact that we make today. Humans took what they needed from the earth to survive, and life went on much the same for many centuries. We also need to factor in that disease was far more deadly than it is today, because of the lack of scientific knowledge, so mortality rates were much higher.
It was during the Industrial Revolution that a tremendous change occurred. It had taken all of human history to reach 1 billion by 1800. The second billion was achieved in only 130 years (1930), the third billion in fewer than 30 years (1959), the fourth billion in 15 years (1974), and the fifth billion in only 13 years (1987).
HOW DID THE POPULATION GET SO BIG?
You might be sitting scratching your head trying to understand how the world got to be so populous. According to James Tulloch (Allianz), despite the global birth rate declining to 2.5 children per woman, population growth will continue for decades, to 8.1 billion people by 2025, to 9.6 billion by 2050. Why? Because more infants are surviving, people are living longer, and we currently have the largest ever population (1.8 billion) of young people aged 10 to 24 years.
“Barring a cataclysm, population growth is inevitable,” says Tulloch.
Simon Ross, CEO of UK-based campaign group Population Matters, believes wholeheartedly that we face a crisis of overpopulation.
“As aquifers are drained of water for agriculture, and as glaciers shrink due to climate change, we will see agricultural productivity decline just as more people move to meat-based diets.”
He believes that expanding populations will force food prices beyond the reach of the poorest, leading to increased poverty, hunger and conflict.
It is argued (although somewhat controversial because of religious reasons) that failing to tackle high birth rates perpetuates suffering. A 2012 report by the UNFPA and the Guttmacher Institute suggests that if all of the women in the poorest countries in the world who wanted to avoid pregnancy had access to family planning advice and safe contraception, it would mean millions fewer unwanted pregnancies, infant deaths, and pregnancy-related deaths.
The report also points out that reduced population growth historically delivers a “demographic dividend” – fewer dependent children and elderly people, but large numbers of working-age people.
“The first countries that went through this were the East Asian Tiger Economies (Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan),” explains UN demographer Ralph Hakkert. “Economists estimate that a third of their economic growth can be attributed to this demographic bonus.”
In a report published in Science, demographers from several universities and the United Nations Population Division concluded that instead of leveling off in the second half of the 21st century, as the UN predicted less than a decade ago, the world’s already massive population will continue to swell beyond 2100. The report estimates an 80 percent chance that the number of people in 2100 will be somewhere between 9.6 and 12.3 billion.
IMAGE: Nigeria in comparison to Africa.
It is predicted that India could become the world’s most populous country, with its numbers peaking around 2070 and declining to around 1.5 or 1.6 billion by 2100.
However, the real concern is the massive predicted increase of population in sub-Saharan Africa (south of the Sahara). According to the UN, the population of the continent could quadruple, from less than 1 billion to almost 4 billion. In 2100, Africa could be more densely populated than China.
“These are not predictions,” says John Wilmoth, head of the UN Population Division. “These are projections of what will happen if current trends continue. There is still an opportunity to intervene.”
Why is Africa’s population increasing so much? Let's simplify things a bit. A country’s total fertility (the number of children the average woman bears in her lifetime) is the key variable in the “demographic transition” that every developing country is expected to go through. At the outset of the transition, high death rates and low life expectancies are balanced by high birth rates, as women bear many children, knowing that some might not survive.
As a country develops to into a modern state with improved agriculture, sanitation, and medicine, the mortality rate will drop, especially in children. It usually takes at least a generation for couples to adjust to the new reality and have fewer children.
During that interval, the population booms – and the size of the boom depends on how long it takes for fertility to fall. This was the case in western countries, where both mortality and fertility fell gradually over a period of a century or more.
In the 1960’s, demographers were shocked to see how fast the transition was happening in Asia and Latin America. It took just three to four decades for fertility levels to plunge in China and Brazil, from more than 6 to less than 2 – the number of children it takes for a couple to replace themselves, and for a country as a whole to maintain a stable population.
For China, it wasn’t a choice to cut down on population. China’s one-child-policy was introduced in 1978 and enacted in September 1980, to alleviate social, economic and environmental problems in the country. Unfortunately, the country now suffers from an imbalanced ratio of males to females.
“It was a total surprise,” says Gilles Pison of INED, the French National Institute of Demographic Studies. The experience in Asia and Latin America, he says, led demographers to expect a similarly rapid transition in other regions. But one region hasn’t followed suit.
You guessed it! As mentioned, it has become clear during the past decade or two, that fertility rates are falling very slowly in countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Proof of this has been very gradual because vital statistics in Africa are poor.
Nigeria is the crucial country in the equation. Its population, already Africa’s largest at 174 million, could more than quintuple in 2100, to more than 900 million. Of the people born on our planet during this century, one in five will be Nigerian, according to the UN. You might have trouble facing the reality of that many people in that small quantity of land – it’s undeniably shocking (check out the image).
If you are feeling overwhelmed absorbing this morbid information, just remember that the future is open for us to create. The statistics provided in this article are just that – statistics – they are not set in stone. In order to establish a favorable future, we have to change the now. The important message to spread today is the need to react to the realities of population change. Women need access to family planning, and education is imperative. The report by the UN Population Division is a reminder of the importance of emphasizing these factors as we move forward.
A really good piece, taught me a fair few things!!
ReplyDeleteThank you I appreciate it!
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